Are you asking whether now is a good time to buy your first home in Marin or Sonoma County? You are not alone. It may be the most common question I hear this fall, and the honest answer is that it depends far less on the calendar and far more on your own numbers. Rates have climbed back near 7 percent, prices remain high, but a more patient market and real down payment assistance can still make this a reasonable window for the right buyer.
What the numbers say right now
Mortgage rates crossed the 7 percent mark in mid-September 2026. The national average 30-year fixed rate ran around 6.9 percent in early September and about 7 percent by September 15, according to Zillow and Freddie Mac data. California buyers saw quotes a little higher, closer to 7.1 to 7.25 percent for a 30-year fixed loan.
Affordability is stretched against those rates. The California Association of Realtors reported that in the second quarter of 2026 only about 19 percent of California households could afford the statewide median-priced home of roughly $916,750, needing about a $228,000 income for a $5,710 monthly payment at a 6.54 percent average effective rate. In our own market report, Novato's median single-family home sits around $1.3 million while Petaluma medians cluster near $900,000 and up, so the buy-versus-rent math deserves a real conversation rather than a rule of thumb.
Why waiting is not automatic
The case for waiting is easy to state: prices might soften and rates might fall. What waiting cannot promise is that both will happen at once, or stay that way long enough for you to buy. When rates drop, competition usually returns, and competition tends to push prices back up. Your down payment buys less, and neighborhoods move further out of reach.
Waiting also has a measurable cost in the meantime: rent paid while you save, and years of equity you are not building. For many first-time buyers in this market, the financially sound move has more to do with readiness than with the month on the calendar.
Down payment help that is actually available
California has a real toolkit for first-time buyers, and Marin and Sonoma add their own local programs on top. The ones worth knowing:
- CalHFA MyHome covers up to about 3.5 percent of the purchase price as a deferred junior loan with no monthly payment, with larger amounts for first-generation buyers, paired with a CalHFA first mortgage.
- California Dream For All offers a shared appreciation loan for first-time buyers at up to 150 percent of county area median income, through limited application windows that fill quickly.
- The Marin Housing Authority sells Below Market Rate homes to qualified first-time buyers and offers Mortgage Credit Certificates that cut your federal tax bill every year you hold the loan.
- In Sonoma County, the county Housing Authority and the City of Petaluma both run first-time buyer and down payment assistance programs with income limits updated for 2026, and CalHFA income caps run up to about $325,000 in Marin.
Every one of these programs has its own eligibility rules and updated income limits, and the details change year to year. Sorting which ones you qualify for is exactly the kind of conversation worth having before you start touring homes.
The honest answer
So, is now a good time? If you have stable income, a realistic down payment plan, and a clear picture of monthly costs, yes: you are buying into a calmer market with less bidding frenzy than a year or two ago, and you have help available that many buyers overlook. If your budget needs rates that have not arrived yet, the best move is to build your down payment, protect your credit, and stay ready.
I will walk you through what the numbers say for your situation, no pressure. Call me at (415) 328-2637 or send a message and let us figure it out together. Love where you live.
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Written by
Peter Schardt
21 years in real estate, 100+ homes sold, and a lifetime in the North Bay. Sales Associate · 01702383 · California.
