Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Marin and Sonoma right now? In one line: both counties are still seller's markets in late October 2026, Marin firmly and Sonoma in a two-speed version, and the biggest mistake is assuming the county average describes your price band. The honest answer for Novato and Petaluma comes down to supply, how fast homes go under contract, and where your target price sits. Here is what the fresh October data shows and what it means for your next move.
Marin is still a firm seller's market
Marin County closed the third quarter of 2026 with the classic signature of a seller's market. The single-family median hit about $1,700,000, up 5.9 percent from a year earlier, and inventory sat at roughly 1.8 months of supply, well below the five to six months that signals a balanced market. Fully 64.4 percent of open-market homes went under contract within 30 days, and closed sales came in at 107.3 percent of their original list price. In plain terms, most homes are selling fast and for more than asking, and a buyer who moves slowly can lose the house to an earlier offer.
Sonoma is a two-speed market
Sonoma County is seller-leaning but split right around the $1 million line. Below about $1 million, homes move like Marin: roughly 71 percent of third-quarter sales fell in that band, absorption ran above 40 percent, and buyers face real competition. Above $1 million, homes linger, and sellers usually need patience and a sharper pricing strategy. Countywide, inventory sat near 2.9 months of supply, down about 34.5 percent from a year earlier, while September pending sales ran 14 percent ahead of the same month last year at 374 single-family homes, a sign demand is holding even with 30-year rates above 7 percent. Medians are roughly flat to slightly down depending on the reporting period.
What the numbers mean in Novato and Petaluma
Locally, Novato's median single-family price was about $1,204,375 over the three months ending September 30, essentially flat year over year across 110 sales. The ZIP codes tell the real story: 94947 has the tightest supply at about 1.4 months, while homes in 94949 are selling in a median 14 days. Petaluma's median ran near $914,000 over the three months ending August, up about 1.6 percent with roughly 28 days on market, and it is widely described as very competitive.
So what should you do right now?
If you are buying, treat Marin and the sub-$1 million Sonoma band as competitive: get preapproved, line up inspection and insurance questions early, and be ready to act within the first week or two a home is listed. If you are selling above about $1 million in Sonoma, expect a longer timeline, price to your actual neighborhood comps rather than a county average, and plan for negotiation instead of multiple offers. Either way, these are county and city medians, not your house. Your price band, your street, and your timeline matter more than the headline.
Want the honest read for your specific home or target neighborhood? Call or text me at (415) 328-2637, or send a message, and I will pull the real numbers for your street. Love where you live.
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Written by
Peter Schardt
21 years in real estate, 100+ homes sold, and a lifetime in the North Bay. Sales Associate · 01702383 · California.
