The question I hear most is a simple one: how is the market doing right now? For anyone buying or selling in Marin and Sonoma County, the honest answer this fall is a calmer, steadier market than the peak years, with the two towns moving at different speeds. Here is what the recent numbers show and what they mean for your plans.
The Novato picture
On the Marin side, Novato keeps its reputation as one of the county's more approachable markets. For the 90 days ending June 30, 2026, the median single-family closed price was about $1.3 million, down a modest 2.6 percent from a year earlier, with a median 21 days on market and roughly 1.3 months of supply. Read plainly, prices have held in the $1.2 million to $1.3 million range for the last five years, inventory has sat near historic lows, and the market has been steady rather than volatile.
That stability is good news for buyers who have been waiting for a drop that never came. It is also a fair warning that sellers should price from the data, not from the memory of a hotter spring. The strongest seller conditions still arrive in the spring months, but fall is a realistic window to buy, and to find a seller who is motivated to close before the year ends.
The Petaluma picture
Across the county line, Petaluma runs a little softer and a little more affordable. Median single-family sale prices have clustered around $925,000 to $1 million depending on the source and timeframe, with roughly 38 to 46 days on market and prices flat to modestly up, about 3 to 4 percent year over year. Competitive pockets like Downtown and Southeast Petaluma still draw the most interest, but the overall pace gives buyers more room and sellers a good reason to start at an honest number.
What it means for buyers
- Get fully pre-approved before you tour. In a low-inventory market, the buyer who is ready to write wins, and a mortgage pre-approval puts you in that position from the first showing.
- Expect the inspection to matter. With older hillside homes and country properties on wells and septic, the report, and the negotiation that follows it, often decide the real price.
- Move on the right home without panic. Stable prices mean there is time to be thoughtful, but not unlimited time.
What it means for sellers
Buyer volume has been most favorable in spring, but spring pricing does not automatically carry into fall. The sellers who do best right now price with current evidence, make honest disclosures, and market the property broadly. That is where my video, social media, and AI-driven advertising come in, putting your home in front of the right buyers while you keep the straight answers coming.
Whether you are weighing an offer, wondering what your home is worth, or still deciding between towns, the fastest way to get the complete picture is a conversation with someone who works both sides of the county line every week. The resources below are free starting points, and so am I.
Useful next steps
“This market is not about guessing. It is about reading the numbers honestly and acting while the inventory is still low.”
Peter Schardt
Written by
Peter Schardt
21 years in real estate, 100+ homes sold, and a lifetime in the North Bay. Sales Associate · 01702383 · California.
