Will home prices drop in Marin or Sonoma County in 2026? Based on the numbers I am watching this month, no large drop is on the horizon. Marin County is still a seller's market with prices up year over year, Sonoma County has cooled a few percent from its peak but is holding roughly steady, and Petaluma is still selling quickly. The bigger story is not falling prices, it is affordability: mortgage rates still above 6 percent plus prices near record highs are what is really shaping the market.
What the Marin County numbers show
Marin is still climbing. Zillow put the county's average home value at about $1.5 million in July 2026, up roughly 3.8 percent from a year earlier, and Redfin reported a median sale price near $1.5 million over the three months ending in August, up about 8.6 percent year over year. Homes are moving fast: Own Marin reported a median of just 13 days on market in the second quarter, with active inventory down about 35 percent from a year ago. When supply is that tight, prices do not fall, they hold or rise.
What the Sonoma County numbers show
Sonoma tells a different story. Zillow's average home value was about $799,000 in mid-2026, down about 1.5 percent from a year earlier, and Redfin's median sale price was about $772,000, down about 3.4 percent. Days on market have stretched to roughly 40 to 67 days countywide. That is a cooler, more balanced market, not a crash: prices are off a few percent from their peak, and forecasts still call for modest appreciation of 2 to 5 percent over the next year.
Petaluma is the exception
Petaluma is the hot spot inside Sonoma. In the second quarter, the town saw about 92 percent absorption, a median of about 22 days on market, and the strongest competition for homes priced under about $1.2 million. If you are waiting for a bargain in Petaluma, you may be waiting a while. Well-priced homes in that range are still drawing multiple offers.
What this means for buyers and sellers
- Buying in Marin or Petaluma: waiting for a price drop may cost you more in the long run. Prices are flat to rising, and rates are expected to ease only gradually toward the mid-5 percent range.
- Buying elsewhere in Sonoma: you have more negotiating room than a year ago. Take your time, but do not expect a fire sale.
- Selling in Marin: the market is still in your favor. Price it right and it should move quickly.
- Selling in Sonoma outside Petaluma: preparation matters more. Staging, repairs, and honest pricing separate a fast sale from a listing that sits.
No one can predict the future, and I will never pretend to. What I can do is show you what is actually happening in your neighborhood, not a county average. I have lived and worked in Novato and Petaluma for decades and sold more than 100 homes across both counties. Send me your address for a free home value estimate, or call me to talk through what the current numbers mean for your move. Love where you live, and make your move with confidence.
Helpful next steps
Written by
Peter Schardt
21 years in real estate, 100+ homes sold, and a lifetime in the North Bay. Sales Associate · 01702383 · California.
